Stock Markets and Recessions
There has been a lot of talk recently about the chances of a recession over the next few years, with some economists calling it ‘all but a certainty’ and others casting doubt. However, the one thing we already know for sure is that it has caused a lot of volatility and fear in the stock market. Most broad market indexes are near or approaching yearly lows, and the moves down have been at times fast and furious.
With that being said, it begs a couple questions: how do markets typically perform during a recession, and when is the ‘bottom’? Looking forward, it’s an impossible question to answer with any certainty, but we can look back at past performance to get an idea of what has happened previously.
There have been 10 official recessions over the last roughly 60 years, and on average the market has fallen between 25% and 30% (the S&P is down roughly 20% this year as of Sept 26th). Typically, markets tend to start the decline well before a recession occurs and start to recover before the recession is over.
While it is insightful to look into previous market behavior during recessions, each new recession is unique and may react totally differently to what we have seen in the past. Always remember – past performance does not guarantee future performance, and it is always important to do your homework!
Alec Baum
CEO & CoFounder
© 2024 Optionality. All rights reserved.
Disclaimer: Equities, equities options, and commodity futures products and services are offered by Lightspeed Financial Services Group LLC (Member FINRA, NFA and SIPC). Lightspeed Financial Services Group LLC’s SIPC coverage is available only for securities, and for cash held in connection with the purchase or sale of securities, in equities and equities options accounts. You may check the background of Lightspeed Financial Services Group LLC on FINRA’s BrokerCheck.
All investments involve risk and past performance of any security does not guarantee future results or returns. Please refer to our fee schedule for a complete listing of relevant charges. System response, trade executions and account access may be affected by market conditions, system performance, quote delays and other factors. The risk of loss in electronic trading can be substantial. This is not an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction where we are not authorized to do business. Optionality makes no guarantee as to the currency, accuracy, or quality of information published and/or archived on the platform, nor will Optionality accept any responsibility for other organizations, businesses, and private persons that provide information on this platform. All information on the platform regarding products and services provided by Optionality is subject to change without notice. Optionality is not responsible for misprints, out of date information, or errors. Optionality does not provide any financial or investment advice.
Terms: “call spread,” “Expires” “positions” “71% positive” (pie chart) “positive snippets” and “negative snippets.”
“*Pre-packaged spreads are option spreads formed by our algorithm and offered as a package.”
“A bull call spread is an options trading strategy designed to benefit from a stock’s limited increase in price. The strategy uses two call options to create a range consisting of a lower strike price and an upper strike price. The bullish call spread helps to limit losses of owning stock, but it also caps the gains.”
“An expiration date in derivatives is the last day that derivative contracts, such as options or futures, are valid. On or before this day, investors will have already decided what to do with their expiring position.”
“Positive and Negative Snippets are a proprietary output from our partner Stocksnips that aggregated the total amount of media mentions of a certain stock and takes the percentage of those that are positive or negative, as in the example shown above referencing 71% positive”
“As with all your investments, you must make your own determination as to whether an investment in any particular security or securities is right for you based on your investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation.” · “0.50 per contract”
*Options trading involves a high degree of risk and may involve total loss of investment. Options spreads, specifically, offer the benefit of projected maximum gain and loss positions (defined above as “defined risk trades” and “defined outcomes”, but in rare situations may result in gain/loss in excess of the projected cap. Optionality has several mechanisms to greatly reduce these occurrences, but we cannot guarantee they will never happen. For more information on options, Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before deciding to invest in options.